martes, 24 de abril de 2018

martes, abril 24, 2018

So Many Jobs, So Few Workers

There is a reason why wages haven’t taken off in the tight jobs market but it may not last much longer

By Justin Lahart

A job seeker arriving at a hiring fair in Washington, D.C., in September. The Labor Department reported Friday that there were 6.1 million open jobs in the U.S. at the end of February—0.9 for every unemployed worker. Photo: mandel ngan/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images 


If every jobless worker in the U.S. could be matched with every available job, the unemployment rate would fall to near zero. That will never happen in reality, but the jobs are there.

On Friday, the Labor Department reported that there were 6.1 million open jobs in the U.S. at the end of February—0.9 for every unemployed worker. That compares with 0.75 per unemployed worker a year earlier, and 0.15 when the recession ended in 2009. And, in a sign that companies are struggling to fill positions, the share of hires per job opening is near an all-time low. 
It seems like a recipe for higher wages—and indeed, there is plenty of anecdotal and survey evidence that wages are rising. But the increase, with average hourly earnings up 2.7% in March from a year earlier, is surprisingly low.



MEN AT WORK
Labor force participation among men aged 24-54

Source: Labor Department


One view is that there are lots of potential workers who aren’t looking for work, and therefore aren’t counted in the unemployment rate. This hidden labor market slack is acting as a sort of pressure valve on wages.

Over the past two years, there has been an uptick in the share of so-called prime-age people—those aged 25 to 54—who are working or looking for work. This increase in prime-age labor participation has been particularly notable among men lately, rising to 89.2% in March from 88.6% a year earlier. It was 90.9% when the recession started, so perhaps there is more room to run.

But an analysis of job flows conducted by JPMorgan economist Jesse Edgerton suggests this increase in participation has come from people staying in the workforce longer rather than workers coming into the labor market. That has kept the job market from getting so tight that wages take off. But without that vast pool, companies will have to do something to fill those available jobs. Paying people more almost always works.

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