martes, 21 de abril de 2015

martes, abril 21, 2015
George Osborne basks in IMF glory as Britain achieves jobs miracle

Chancellor hails the economy as a 'job-creating machine' but warns Scotland will take the largest hit from falling oil prices

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Washington

6:00PM BST 17 Apr 2015

Union jack sterling
A record 31 million people are in work, with unemployment dropping to 5.6pc 
 
 
Britain is enjoying its best rate of employment in 40 years and has become a poster-child of economic success in a depressed world still struggling to shake off the lingering effects of the financial crisis, George Osborne has claimed.
 
Basking in lavish praise from the International Monetary Fund, the Chancellor said the latest jobs data are a resounding triumph for British economic management under the Conservatives.
 
"The UK economy is one of the brighter spots in the world economy at the moment. That is confirmed by the IMF forecast, which shows the UK is the second fastest growing economy of the G7 in the next two years, after being the fastest-growing in 2014," he said.
 
"All of that is more than reinforced by the employment figures we saw this morning, which showed a record number of people in work, and claimant counts at the lowest level since 1975," he said.
 
Unemployment dropped by 76,000 to 1.84m over the three months to February. A record 31m people are in work, and the jobless rate has fallen to 5.6pc, close to the inflexion point where it starts to generate wage pressures.
 
"The British economy is a job-creating machine, and we set out plans today as the Conservative Party, to go on creating 2m jobs in the next parliament," he said.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, praised the UK the recovery but did not specify whether this was the result of quantitative easing by the Bank of England or the strategy of the Government.

"It's clearly delivering results, because when we look at the comparative growth rates delivered by various countries in Europe, it's obvious that what's happening in the UK has actually worked," she said.

The IMF has persistently misjudged the strength of the UK recovery, forecasting that fiscal austerity would do more damage than has materialised.

The Fund's economists rely on Keynesian models that give too much weight to the fiscal multiplier, and have under-estimated the sheer power of monetary stimulus.


Christine Lagarde: 'It's obvious that what's happening in the UK has actually worked'


Mr Osborne said one of the side-effects of Britain's stellar jobs growth is poor productivity growth but called it the lesser of evils than can be tackled over time with infrastructure investment. "I would rather have a productivity challenge than a massive unemployment challenge," he said.

The Chancellor remains confident that Britain's North Sea oil industry is strong enough to weather the slump in global prices but warned that the crisis shows just how vulnerable Scotland might be if left alone to the mercy of the global commodity cycle.

The IMF said the UK's oil producers have the cost structure of any major region in the world, suffering even more stress than the US shale drillers since the collapse in prices over the past year.

"Canada, the North Sea and the United Kingdom are among the most expensive places to operate oil fields. As a result, the oil price slump will affect production in those locations earlier and more intensely than in other locations," it said.




Mr Osborne said the Scottish economy will bear the brunt but the UK as a whole will benefit.

"The oil price fall is clearly a challenge for the very important oil and gas industry in Scotland and important parts of the supply chain across the UK," he said

"I think this is a demonstration of the strength of the United Kingdom, that when one particular part of our UK is affected, the broad shoulders of the entire United Kingdom can stand behind it," he said.

Mr Osborne said the Government had taken "dramatic action" in the Budget to cut taxes on North Sea oil production and introduce investment allowances to pay for seismic surveys and exploration.

It is an open question whether it will be enough to prevent decimation of the industry if Brent crude prices remain near $60 into next year as hedging contracts by producers run out.

A Rigzone survey found that just 17pc of oil and gas professionals think the tax measures will not be enough to lift investment in the North Sea over the next five years. Many are already looking for jobs abroad.

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