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January 2, 2015 3:15 pm

US pullout of Afghanistan leaves Pakistan on edge

Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad
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Local residents gather beside burning tyres and cloths as they block a street during a protest in Peshawar on December 31, 2014, held against the Taliban militant attack on an army-run school. A team of heavily armed Pakistani Taliban gunmen stormed the army-run school in the northwestern city of Peshawar on December 16, slaughtering 150 people including 134 children. AFP PHOTO/ A MAJEED (Photo credit should read A Majeed/AFP/Getty Images)
©AFP

The end of the US combat missions in Afghanistan this week has left Pakistan fearing an Iraq-style breakdown in security leading to blowback from resurgent Islamist extremists.

The fears come as the country, labelled “half an ally” by some Western officials for its tolerance of Taliban safe havens along the border with Afghanistan, renewed its fight against the group after it launched a brutal attack on a school in the northern city of Peshawar last month.

The massacre of 150 people, mostly children, shocked the country and prompted senior Pakistani officials to describe it as the country’s 9/11 — a comparison to the New York terrorist attack of 2001 that sparked the US campaign in Afghanistan.

“If Afghanistan collapses like Iraq, we will live with the consequences,” said one senior security official. “The Americans came due to their own 9/11 and they are leaving Afghanistan right after Pakistan’s 9/11. For us [Pakistan], the Peshawar attack was a turning point.”

Since the attack, Pakistan tried to demonstrate stronger resolve in combating jihadi violence, resuming executions of those involved in previous terrorist attacks and debating the establishment of military courts to speed up trials of terrorism suspects.

The measures have coincided with a Pakistan army campaign against Taliban militants in the north Waziristan region along the Afghan border, which began in June 2014 after an audacious attack on Pakistan’s biggest airport in Karachi by Taliban-backed Uzbek jihadis.
 
But analysts warn that Pakistan’s future security prospects will be closely linked to the ability of Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan president, to steer his country through what is likely to be a tumultuous period.

In recent months, Taliban militants have increased their attacks on Afghan government targets and western troops, indicating a determination to gain the upper hand on the battlefield.

“The main problem for Pakistan is that more instability in Afghanistan will come around to hit us badly. It’s a high risk situation for Pakistan,” said Arif Nizami, a former Pakistani minister.

Pakistan / Afghanistan locator


“Looking at the situation from Pakistan, the government in Kabul is seen to be weak, which then raises questions over [Afghan] president Ashraf Ghani’s ability to take charge [of Afghanistan] after the US led war is scaled down.”

Others say that the return of the US to a more active combat role in Iraq in 2014 should serve as a warning of the fragility of Afghanistan’s security and how it could draw Washington back to a more active role in fighting Islamist militants.

“The risk of Afghanistan becoming just like Iraq cannot be ignored,” said Aftab Sherpao, Pakistan’s former interior minister. “Even though American troops are being drawn down and today the number of American troops in Afghanistan is fewer than at its peak, a future surge of US troops in Afghanistan is possible.”

But some western diplomats warned against drawing comparisons with Iraq.

“In Iraq, the US returned because it’s a more strategically important country. A collapse of Iraq and its takeover by Isis (the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) could have wider consequences for the surrounding Middle East,” said one. “Unless another 9/11 type of attack with global consequences comes from Afghanistan, why should the US go back there?” he asked.

Aziz Khan, Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan during the Taliban rule from 1996 to 2001, said that Pakistan’s security risk will primarily result from challenges at home while the Afghan Taliban, led by Mullah Muhammad Omar, would “primarily focus on Afghanistan” to further consolidate the movement’s position.



 
In the past, Pakistani intelligence officials have said that the Afghani Taliban saw Pakistan as a potential patron, while their Pakistani brethren, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, led by Mullah Fazlullah, were seeking to destabilise the Pakistani state.
 
In the past year, however, there are signs that the aims of the two groups may have diverged. There have also been credible reports of Iraq-based Isis jihadis seeking partnerships with Pakistani and Afghan Taliban.
 
“I find it highly irresponsible for people to assume that the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan will have separate interests. If Afghanistan spins out of control, Pakistani Taliban will find space there,” said one retired Pakistani intelligence official who served in areas along the Afghan border for more than 25 years. “The threat is very real.”

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