March 17, 2014 6:06 pm
Preparing for Putin’s next move
The west must be ready if Russia escalates its intervention in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has demonstrated beyond doubt his determination to be ruthless in pursuit of his country’s interests in Ukraine. Yesterday the moment finally arrived for the US and EU to spell out to the Kremlin leader what the costs of his aggression must be.
The Kremlin engineered a relentless propaganda campaign to secure a resounding vote for secession. While Russian speakers in Crimea may form the majority of the population, the resulting Yes vote of 96.77 per cent carries an air of Stalinist election techniques rather than sound democratic principles.
Russia’s occupation of Crimea has violated international law – as Saturday’s UN Security Council vote would have shown had Moscow not deployed its veto to stifle the world’s censure. The aggressive redrawing of Ukraine’s boundaries is an affront to rules that have governed Europe since the end of the cold war. In response, the US and EU could do no less than impose visa bans and asset-freezes on scores of senior Russian figures, including some of Mr Putin’s closest advisers.
Nobody should assume that these sanctions will be enough to curb the Kremlin. It is far from clear that Mr Putin’s thirst to revenge the toppling of his ally in Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, has been sated. The Russian leader, who addresses his parliament today, may now decide to incorporate Crimea directly into the Russian Federation, completing the process initiated by the stealthy invasion of the peninsula using unmarked militia men.
Nor can the possibility be excluded that he will go further, dispatching his military into eastern Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russian-speaking communities. Ultimately Mr Putin may be satisfied with nothing less than the complete dismemberment of Ukraine. He may be of the view that if the Ukrainian state does not want to be allied to Russia, it should not be a state at all.
Given this risk, western powers should prepare to respond firmly to any further escalation. EU heads of government meeting in Brussels on Thursday should lay out a tougher range of economic sanctions to be imposed if there is fresh Russian intervention.
Agreeing these sanctions will be a big test of the bloc’s unity, given Europe’s dependence on Russia for its energy. But the EU must decide whether it attaches more importance to its international credibility than its commercial interest.
Of course, the door should be left open to a settlement, should Mr Putin be prepared to step back – even at this late hour. But the Russian foreign ministry’s statement yesterday outlining its criteria for talks is scarcely encouraging.
When Mr Putin addresses the Duma, it may become clear what his next move will be. However, we should be under no illusions about him. His government has produced a diplomatic note after annexing a large chunk of European territory by force. This is an affront to anyone with a sense of Europe’s history.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014.
0 comments:
Publicar un comentario